Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
